NCS Shorts | #15: Oxford

Shorts. You join me here, Colin, with Wi Fi about as reliable as bookie's odds. And you join us with an episode to celebrate the news that, just like me opening my A level results, Luke Williams is also not off to Oxford. I'm joined by Tom. And I'm joined by Rich. Gents. How you doing? Tom, you first.

Oh, that's unbelievable, mate. I've myself muted so you can't hear me laughing, but was brilliant. I'm good. I'm even better for hearing that. I'm really good, mate. How are you?

Not too bad, not too bad. It's a good job that this is an audio podcast and not able to see the visual delights of me sat in a garage with a beanie hat on wearing clothes. I'd like to also point out as well, bad rich, what about yourself?

Not too bad, mate. We were just discussing energy bills and things, weren't we? And my 20,000 pound energy bills probably hit me like a bus today. But yeah, other than that, absolutely fine, mate.

Hopefully you haven't tried to pay that energy bill by putting ten pound on Luke Williams going to Oxford because otherwise that Bill is going to get even harder to pay. But that brings me on to the topic that we're going to start with the news that obviously has broken today, that Luke Williams remains as Notts county manager. I'm sure like every other Notts fan, we're a mixture of relief and delight at this news. Tom, starting with you, how did you feel? How do you react to the news? What has it told us? Also, I think, about where Notts are not so culture, those sort of things. We were talking about culture, obviously, last episode when we talked about crew, what does it tell us a little bit more about where we are as a fan base and where we are as a club?

Yeah, obviously, I think people have probably seen some tweets that I've put out and I've had a mixed reaction, like we were discussing before we came on, had loads of people messaging me asking, what's going on? That's why last night I kind of put out pretty much similar to what's been said today in the press that he wasn't the one that was approached. I mean, the rumor was flying around from BBC Radio Oxford. Obviously, it kind of started with Ruben, then kind of developed with Radio Oxford, saying there's two people that are currently in jobs that are being interviewed for the job. And I think people wrongfully jumped on the assumption that it was Luke Williams. So I wanted to just sort of have a bit of clarity on that last night that it probably wasn't him. I think what it's also taught us about bookies ODs. I know we've made some jokes about it, but I think it's the last time I'll ever tweet about bookmakers oDs. Definitely more hassle than it's worth and you can't really read too much into them otherwise. If we did, we'd have Kim Emstrom as our manager at the moment, I think so it might be a little bit different, but in terms of where Notts is as a club, I think it's. Know, Luke put some really nice comments out there today in the press conference. He kind of said that it has to be a massive, massive step up for him to have his head even turned. So I think it says a lot about the club that we're holding on to a manager who's clearly sought after and like he said himself, he's been linked with plenty of, I don't want to say bigger jobs, but jobs in high divisions, we'll say that. That's a fact. And yeah, I think it says a lot about us as a club and the success where we are at the moment.

Yeah, I think you're absolutely right. I think you're absolutely right and I do want to come on to that a little bit. I think you're absolutely right in the sense that this shows a lot about where we are as a club to keep and retain a manager like Luke Williams. I know what we're talking about here is there wasn't necessarily an offer on the table. Luke was made that incredibly clear. But let's be honest, this is a name that's doing a know on social media of other clubs because everyone's becoming aware of. And I think that probably started with the Wrexham documentary in terms of the raising of prominence and the profile. We've had coaches voice who've done things with LuKe Williams. So there's national and probably international awareness. And I'm not exaggerating there when you consider the Wrexham documentary about what this man has done and what this man has been able to do in terms of lifting and moving that Notts county culture forward. Rich, what about yourself?

It's great news and it was nice for Luke to finally put all the rumors to bed. One thing we have to understand about when we're looking at betting markets at our level is remember that they are a very small market. All it takes is somebody with more cash than cents to go and chuck a few hundred quid on a manager, and all of a sudden these ODs shift dramatically, so you have to be aware of that as well. But it was great to see the way that he shrugged it off in his usual manner. Nice rye smile after the first foray of questions when he put everybody's minds at rest. But while all that was going off, it was interesting because we were all discussing stuff in our WhatsApp group as well at the know. We were actually starting to think about, and I'm sure other fans were as well, the Notts county without Luke Williams and what would that look like? And whilst I'm absolutely over the moon that he's staying, I think it's fantastic for us, the club, the players and to help us continue the development that we're seeing. And let's not be. This is this season, whether we like it or not. It's a development season. For know, you look at Mansfield and where they are. We're not quite at Mansfield's level, but they've been four years in the know. Brexham's a slightly different prospect because they're just chucking money at it. And Stockport's another example of getting the right manager in and developing over a couple of, you know, let's not get too down with some of those results and where we are. Although it's safe to say that there have been times when some of the fan base have been a bit frustrated with things, and I include myself in that, as you guys know, because at times there is a naivety and frailness, I think, or a fragility to our game and our style of play at this level. That does leave us exposed to the OD, good whooping here and there, but unfortunately for us, it always tends to happen against the teams we really don't want it to happen against, but it does. So I think it's great that he's sticking with us. I'm over the moon, I'm sure the players will be. Ruben's comments just goes to show you how much the players respect the guy and I just hope that he's with us for a long time to come. But maybe it was an opportunity to sit back and have a look and say, well, let's be totally honest about this. There are areas of our game, regardless of how good he is, that do leave us a little bit exposed at times. And I'm sure him, the owners and his team around him and everything will be looking at that anyway. And a lot of it's going to be down to recruitment as well, but it has raised the know, if another manager was to come in, what type of manager would it know? Would they be looking to shore up the defence to start with and this sort of thing now? No, it's all conjecture now because he's obviously staying, which is great, but it did raise a lot of very interesting questions, I felt.

Tom, how do you feel about that?

Yeah, I just wanted to quickly add that while we're not endorsing betting, I just thought I'd have a quick look at the live betting odds and he's drifted out to 14 to one and he's not even in the top five names now, so just goes to show how just backing up, Rich says it's such a small market. Those comments obviously today have completely changed the market and it's completely changed. So I think at this level there's a lot of guesswork going on. There's new names being thrown in there all the time. There's plenty of recognizable names for Notts fans in there. Sean Derry's in there, Sol Campbell is in there, as is Neil Warnock. So there's plenty of Notts related names if they want to go for a Notts down Notts Avenue Avenue, but just goes to show that you probably can't read too much into them. And yeah, I just thought I'd give a quick live update. I mean, they're changing as we're on here, actually, so be out of date by the time it goes out. But there's now two people that are evens for the job and it's just always changing. But Lou Williams keeps getting bigger and bigger, which I know we said we're not looking into them, but it's nice as an extra little peace of mind that even they think it's not going to happen. Now, who knows?

By the end of this podcast, if they're after a bald man with a beard, it might be me. Who's the favorite? Who knows? But I want to join in some of the things that we just heard there because I think it would have been easy to miss for our listeners because I think there's some really important points. Tom, I want to just sort of summarize your experience. And obviously again, the bumpy ride that is social media. I think it's absolutely right to bring up the fact that some of the posts that you put out there were driven by this absolute desire for anybody to know, know. And you were able to kind of put, you know, you were. You were put into a position where rather than replying to hundreds of know, which you'd obviously made clear to us in our WhatsApp group that actually you just put this kind of collaborative kind of summary together as a way of kind of answering those questions and expectations that you had from other people who followed you, not just from Notts but from other clubs. I also think without wanting to kind of go into and reveal any of the secrets of our WhatsApp group, I think it's also important. There was an awful lot of things that you didn't share out there that you made very clear that you were sort of aware of and those sort of things. So I think it's important to remember that whereas anybody who wants to take a potshot of the things that you did post out, I think it's also important to understand the kind of the filter that you've got and the things that you were hearing and talking about and all that sort of stuff that you were able to kind of keep under lock and key. So I think that's absolutely important to point out. I think Rich makes a really good point as well, that this moment was not. Know if I'm Luke Williams, I'm smiling a little bit. Know the storm in a teacup that this was. Know I feel nice and reassured that I've got the fan base on side and that everyone went through this moment of anxiety about the Luke Williams position and about the Notts position where we're. That's, that's one thing. But I think also it gave the whole club, the whole fan base an opportunity to, like Rich said, stand back and think, okay, where are we? Do you know what I mean? Because one of the things that I felt, and we talked about club culture before is this was a really good test of how embedded that club culture is. Because on a wider issue than Notts county and Luke Williams, I've always said, and I continually believe this, that there is a real threat if your club culture is driven by your current manager, solely by your current manager. I completely believe that the club manager or head coach or whatever terminology you want to use, they have to drive that forward on the pitch, they have to drive that forward on the training ground. But they're not the only standard bearer. And I think we see that in huge clubs. Don't we see it with Manchester United when they lose such a figurehead? I think we've seen it across the river at Forest as well, when they lose such a figurehead who is involved in every aspect of the club and drives all that forward, when that voice is gone or diminished and you don't have that culture embedded with other stakeholders within the club. That's when there becomes a lot of instability. I go back, know some of the biggest managers that we've had in our time at Notts County. I was unfortunate to miss the Jimmy Cyrill era. Rich reliably informs know how great that was. But you lose a great man like that and you lose the narrative. You go back to Neil Warnock, somebody who takes us through the divisions, and you lose that voice, you lose that narrative, you lose that kind of overarching viewpoint. Then suddenly the club starts to scramble. And obviously here we are still, I think, recovering from the after effects of losing a significant manager like that and not having the foundations beneath it, not somebody being able to take that on. And so one of the things that I put out was something that I put in a blog for Garrett forward, but something that I've constantly gone on about as well, is that we need to look back and reassure ourselves that we have got owners and we have got other people within the club protecting that culture, making sure that culture continues. We saw it, I think, with Ian Bertner, which I know not everybody listening would agree with that, but I feel that that was the start of this kind of possession based style, this front foot style that we've got now. The Luke Williams was then able to continue when Ian Burchnell went the way he did. And thankfully we're not know, we're not commiserating, we're not upset, because the fact that we've still got Luke Williams at the helm and he'll be able to drive that also, you know, we need to reassure ourselves that at some point this very good man with this very good track record will possibly attract the attention of a bigger club or the way football goes, he may end up being sacked at some point. There's only two ways out in Notts county, aren't it? You either get a better job or you get sacked. And that's the same with every other club. So I think it was an interesting kind of yardstick on where we are as a club in terms of its culture, where we are as a fan base, in terms of how reassured we feel about the culture at the club and its ability to kind of develop and move forward. But obviously, I'm sure that speak for everybody how delighted we are to still be here, to still be talking about Luke Williams'Black and White Army. Right, on to crew, then. Think there's a nice little segue here, because one of the things I was expecting us to be talking about was quite a significant match with quite a lot of talking points and here we are. Now football's moved on. The beauty of football, we're talking about something else. But, Tom, you were there at crew, all right? And you also ended up being quite a main part of the Daily Mail online with some of your content. You've made quite a splash, haven't you, really? Recently, over the last sort of seven days. Talk me through the crew experience.

Yeah, absolutely crazy. The fact that the clip that I put up went, the word viral is used a lot, isn't it? But I think it was a bit of viral and I'll be honest, it was a weird away day from the start. There was a little bit of tension in the stands and I think this is what, when people ask for context of the situation, I actually think a lot of it came from the tension from our own fan base, and that sounds really strange, but it was sold out and it was pretty much rose, including my own, wrote it was like two to a seat. It wasn't really that well stewarded. They weren't telling you not stand in big clusters. No one was sitting in their own seats. It was all a little bit of a mess, if I'm being honest. And I think that there was a bit of a conflict within the fan base in terms of people that want to sit in the seats and then people that want to stand where they want to, like you kind of a lot of most of way days, to be honest. So there was already tension sort of in the stands and I think that contributed to it. And then in the game itself, from a footballing perspective, we'll get onto that in a minute. But just from the sort of creating the scenes sort of perspective, I'm not someone I've been on here before and said shouldn't ever blame the referee because A, it levels out over a season and B, should have enough quality to win a game anyway and shouldn't be relying on one refereeing decision. But it did feel a little bit like everything was going against us in small ways, like yellow cards. It just felt like every foul we would make, we'd get a booking. But I mean, Rowe, for them, 21, kept making. He must have made four or five Fouls, which any of them could have been bookings, and he didn't even get a warning, really. So, yeah, a bit of grief of that. And then like Luke Williams was sending his presser today, the end of the game felt like a farce. It felt typical that we were on the break and he pulls his hamstring and actually this is something quite interesting. I watched back some fan footage from crew because I wanted to watch the highlights, and this is before the highlights came out on the official channels, whatever. So someone had uploaded the fan footage and if you watch it, he actually pulls his hamstring while Crow are on the break. But because he manages to get in a position where he can see what's going on the attack, he lets it play out. But as soon as we break, he blows up. So really he probably should blow while they're on the break, which only sort of adds further to what a farcical situation it was. And then the substitute referee had to make one decision and he gives a penalty, which I think is probably a 60 40, 50 type decision. So it just felt a little bit like that. And I think it all just boiled over the stadium as well, itself. You couldn't even get out to the concourse at halftime. Like, you were stood there for ten minutes trying to queue to get out of the stand. And I think the fact that the barrier was basically knee height meant that the fans could get on the pitch and do what they did. Don't get wrong not excusing the behavior. You never ever want to see that. We said about Ginningham, when Sam Socomb got hit with a vape or whatever, it know, allegedly got hit with vape. Throw that, then know we said the same. You have to be critical. I'm not excusing the fan behavior, but there were a lot of things adding up, contributing, and it just felt like a big. It boiled over, basically, and that's how I would probably best describe it. Sorry, it's a bit of a long winded explanation there, but it was quite a big build up of events that led to that one situation.

No, thank you for that. And I think it's really important to have that kind of eyewitness approach to it and being able to bring that to people who weren't there, who probably followed it a little bit like me remotely, and thinking, what the heck is going on? Do you know what I mean? As these various alerts come in and then, like I say, you scroll on social media and you start getting snippets of, like you say, quite a farcical situation. Rich, what were your takes on a kind of football sense as Notts versus crew?

I think it's fair to say it was always going to be a tighter game than people might have expected. They're a good team crew, they're a good club. Footballing wise, they're doing really well with their academy, and there's a lot won't say to like, but there's a lot to credit them with as a club. And it was always going to be a difficult game. And I always thought it'd be one of those games that be won or lost on a moment of magic or a moment of absolute ridiculousness. And unfortunately it was the latter. I had a crew fan on Twitter having a little go at me because I'd put the stats up and he was having a go about the XG and I sort of explained that, look, take the penalty away and they wouldn't even have had 1.0 XG rating. Whereas really we should have done better ourselves. Again, we've missed chances and opportunities to have won that game before the end anyway. Macca had a really good chance. Jody Jones obviously was very close at the near post with a low cross, but on another day you would have seen the back of the net Ratling. So, yeah, just a horrible game. One of those that you get every now and again throughout the season. And I think the sooner we put it to bed, the better, really. And let's look forward to Bradford on.

Saturday, which brings me very neatly onto the Bradford game then. So, Rich, staying with you, we've got Bradford coming. Know you talked about kind of how similar crew Notts are in terms of where they were, in terms of the table, where we still are in very similar positions, talks about quite similar styles of play, not exactly the same, but very similar in terms of possession based and in that times of culture. We've talked also about kind of how deeply embedded Cruz culture is versus how fairly recent Notts have tried to embed this style and this culture onto Nottst's Bradford then. So how similar or how different are these two sides?

Well, the big thing that's changing for Bradford is obviously the new manager, Graham Alexander. We know the type of manager he is, especially more recently with MK Dons as well. They were unlucky. They were unlucky to lose at the weekend. They've lost the last three league games, but they were very unlucky to lose against Barrow at the weekend. I think they were definitely in the ascendancy, looking at some of the data. They had most of the ball, they were a lot more progressive, they held a lot more. Again, you know, it's one of the things that Graham Alexander is going to have to work on is shoring up the defense. Because if you can shore up the defense and start getting some decent ball up front, then you might see them starting to make some progress. And that's the biggest problem at the moment. Is they've not really. You look at Notts and other teams, we've got Macar up front, who's a talisman, you know, he's going to get goals for you, what have you. They're really struggling for somebody like that. Leading goal scorer at the moment's got about six goals, I think, for the season, which, considering the 17 games gone, it's not great. Having said that, it will be interesting to see how he sets up on Saturday. He went with the back four against Barrow because that's predominantly what Bradford had been playing with. But when he was at MK Dons, when we played them at their place, he kind of matched us up with the back three and a couple of wide defenders as well. That could push on if need be, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's got that in his Arsenal of players at Bradford, then that's how I would see him probably trying to set up against us, but probably more with a back five than a back three. But it'll be interesting for sure. And the other thing is they've got momentum with their fans as well again now, now that the whole management situation's out the way, they've got rid. Kevin McDonald, who's a player, was caretaker player manager for a while and it's been a bit bitty for them, but now with a man like Graham Alexander there, they really got behind the team on Saturday. They're going to come down in decent numbers this weekend as well, so they're going to have a good support behind them and I think it's going to be a really difficult game for us, even at our place.

Yeah, I think you make some really good points. I think particularly interesting about how they're going to line up in the shape that they're going to take and tendency for the managers to try and match the opposition, particularly when facing Notts. That's something that I'm going to be looking out for, I do think, looking down. Just taking a quick perusal at Bradford's results as well. They're very often, apart from one or two standout games, there's only one goal in it that they're either side of and it gives you the sense that they are on the team, of an edge, of being able to turn something around. Obviously, we hope that doesn't happen against Notts, but certainly you can see with the level of results, even though they're not in a great run of form, that there's always just the OD goal in it. And I think if they can sort of twist and turn and adapt and change something, then they might go and have a little bit of an uplift. Tom, what about you? Before we move on to predictions?

Yeah, I just want to echo what's been said, really, and also just highlight how direct they are, how good in the air they are. Their main striker is Andy Cookie. He's not had a great season this season. Like Rich said, he's got six goals. Last season he was top scorer in League Two. I think it was 28. So he has got the ability to this season. The quality of service hasn't been great to him, but he's still in the top 97%, I think, of players for aerial jeWels, for strikers, for forwards. So he's fantastic in the air. They've got Sam stubs at the back again, another player that we obviously know a bit about, and again, he's another defender who's aerily dominant. So that's what their style will be. That's what they hinge on. Whether Alexander's had time to change things, I'm not even necessarily sure he'll make a lot of changes to. Their main source of attack is getting that ball out wide and getting crosses into Andy Cook. Slightly worried from a set piece situation. They haven't actually scored that many goals to set pieces, Bradford, but we're susceptible to a set piece goal. And they've got lots of height and aerial ability, which is a bit of a concern, if I'm honest. But I do think we've got better players than them. The league position says a lot to tell that story, but the other thing is, the other week they played Rexham not so long ago and they matched Rexham. In fact, they were probably the best team in that game and Rexam were a side that we struggled against. And they look kind of stylistically quite similar to Rexam in that one as well. So they've got quality, they've got a really good goalkeeper. Again, he's not having his best season, but like you both said, it feels a little bit like they're on the cusp of something. They need stuff to click together, and we just got to hope that's not this weekend. But I do think that if we play our game, which we've been saying for a few weeks now, if we play our game like we can, then we should be all right. It's actually a game, I suppose, where both teams kind of, I wouldn't say we need a result, but it'd be a good opportunity for both teams to really kick start this sort of middle portion of the season and really get going.

Thank you for that. Tom, so, Rich, over to you. Prediction for me please.

You're going to hate me. You're going to hate me for this. I'm really worried about Saturday. I think we're under pressure to get a result. We're up against a team with a big away following. Again, they know they'rE on the cusp of something. They're going to come at us. Make no bones about it. Graham Alexander isn't going to let them just come and stand and watch us pass the ball about and they're capable of knocking the ball about themselves a bit as well. And, you know, I've just got this horrible feeling and I think we're going to lose to one.

No, I always think bit of realism, do you know what I mean? Like I say when bringing us back to the start, what we're talking about, I think there has been this kind of stock check, not just about Luke Williams and club culture, but also where we're at. So I think that's a really good justification. Tom, what about you?

I completely appreciate where Rich is coming from and the next five games are actually really big because the five games before stopport and think the average position is around 13th and this is actually the lowest of the teams. So there is pressure in terms of got five games here to pick up some points. If we don't pick up any points from these five games, then you do feel that we may be some way off the pace. But I think this is going to be the biggest contrast of results we've had in our predictions. I'm going to go for a home win. I think we're a better team than Bradford. I know it's the early kickoff on TV. It's not ideal. Didn't go well for us last time, but I just think that are still finding the feet under Alexander and they've not been great all season. So I'm going to go for not three one. So a massive free goal swing from Rich's prediction.

You've heard it here first. I was going to ask about what the ODs are for that, but I thought I better not make that joke. I'm going to talk about a draw. All right. And like I say, this is me definitely on the fence between these two points because I think you both make really good points. I do think whoever gets the first goal on this I think changes it sort of psychologically. Obviously, I hope they're not the first goal ahead and if they do, then I could see them getting two, three. But if Bradford get that as know, they're obviously on that momentum. And I completely agree with what Rich is saying, and I could see them also getting that. So what I'm hoping is bit of a chess know, and I'm hoping that obviously not to come out with a win, but I can see it ending in a draw, particularly, I think, with like, say, the TV element that we talked about, which never seems to go well. But also I think it's just about steadying the ship in terms of what has been a tumultuous week, really. It's been quite an eventful one. And I think getting back to business, getting back on that grass and getting back to us might take a little bit of time. And I think that maybe we're going to find a draw being a good bedrock for them, being building up for those games that you were talking about, Tom, those big games. So I suppose on the next podcast, we're going to see who is right. So we've got one prediction of a loss, one prediction of a draw, one prediction of a win. So fingers crossed for episode 16.